Agrifood Systems Face Escalating Climate Impacts Amid Weak Targeted Action

Climate change is no longer a distant threat to global food supplies. It is already reshaping how food is grown, raised and delivered. A major new analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the United Nations Development Programme reviews 64 national adaptation plans submitted by developing countries. It reaches a clear conclusion: agrifood systems are at the centre of the climate crisis.

Nearly four billion people depend on farming, livestock, forestry and fisheries for their livelihoods. According to the study, 97 percent of the countries analysed report climate-related damage to their food systems. Crop yields are falling. Livestock are suffering from heat stress. Forests are degrading. Fisheries are shifting as oceans warm. Extreme weather events are disrupting supply chains and increasing food prices.

Governments are also reporting social consequences. Climate impacts on agriculture are driving hunger, income loss, migration and growing inequality. Food systems are not just about production. They are deeply connected to health, jobs and community stability.

Ecosystems Under Pressure

Healthy ecosystems are the backbone of food production. Water, soil, forests and coastal systems provide the natural services that agriculture depends on. Yet 95 percent of the reviewed national plans describe climate-related damage to these ecosystems.

Water scarcity is becoming more common. Soil degradation is reducing productivity. Coastal ecosystems are under pressure from rising seas and warming waters. When ecosystems weaken, food systems become more fragile. The report makes it clear that protecting nature is not separate from protecting agriculture. The two are inseparable.

Strong Plans, But Gaps Remain

Every country analysed identifies agrifood systems as a priority for climate adaptation. Most plans focus heavily on improving crop production. Common measures include climate-tolerant seed varieties, irrigation systems and soil conservation techniques. Many countries also promote forest restoration and better water management.

However, the study finds an important gap. Only 16 percent of agrifood adaptation actions directly respond to specific climate hazards that countries identify, such as drought or flooding. Even fewer actions are tailored to the needs of vulnerable groups like smallholder farmers, women or Indigenous communities.

In simple terms, countries know the risks, but their responses are not always sharply targeted. Without clear links between identified problems and planned solutions, adaptation efforts may fall short.

The Financing Challenge

The biggest barrier may be money. Based on cost estimates in national plans, agrifood systems account for about 54 percent of total adaptation finance needs in developing countries. Yet only around 20 percent of global adaptation finance currently flows to this sector. That equals just over 1 percent of total climate finance worldwide.

This mismatch is striking. The sector facing some of the greatest climate risks receives only a small share of climate funding.

Countries also point to technical and institutional barriers. Many report limited expertise, weak coordination between ministries and challenges accessing finance. While the private sector is often seen as essential, governments say businesses remain cautious due to investment risks.

Grants are widely viewed as crucial, especially for smallholder farmers who cannot afford loans. Without stronger financial support, even well-designed adaptation plans may struggle to move from paper to practice.

A Critical Moment for Action

The report highlights another worrying trend: loss and damage in agrifood systems is already happening. Nearly half of the countries studied report observed economic and non-economic losses linked to climate impacts. Crops are failing. Infrastructure is being damaged. In some areas, the limits of adaptation are being tested.

At the same time, national adaptation plans offer a powerful opportunity. They provide a roadmap for building climate-resilient food systems. They can align agriculture with broader development goals and support food security, poverty reduction and economic stability.

To succeed, countries will need better climate data, stronger coordination and much greater investment. Monitoring systems must also improve so governments can measure whether adaptation efforts are truly working.

The message is simple. The world understands the risks to its food systems. Plans are in place. But without sharper action and stronger financial backing, climate change could outpace our ability to protect the farms, forests and fisheries that feed the world.