Namibia Must Reform Public Investment Systems to Deliver on Growth and Climate Goals

Namibia has put infrastructure at the heart of its development plans. From expanding electricity networks and upgrading railways to improving water systems and digital connectivity, the country sees public investment as the engine of economic growth. These ambitions are anchored in Vision 2030 and the Fifth National Development Plan, with future budgets projecting a sharp rise in capital spending.

But reality has been tougher. Over the past decade, capital spending has steadily declined as a share of total government expenditure. Economic slowdown after the commodities boom, combined with the impact of COVID-19, pushed public debt sharply higher. As revenues tightened, development spending was often the first area to be cut or revised mid-year. Even when money was allocated, projects were frequently under-executed.

The challenge now is not only to spend more, but to prove that the country can deliver what it plans.

What Works and What Doesn't

Namibia's infrastructure record is mixed. The country performs strongly in road connectivity. Major towns and cities are linked by good-quality roads, and access to clean water compares favorably with many countries in the region.

However, other sectors show weaknesses. Rail infrastructure has suffered from years of underinvestment. Electricity production remains limited, forcing reliance on imports, and electrification rates are still below emerging market standards. Education infrastructure also lags behind peer countries.

An efficiency analysis suggests Namibia is not getting the maximum output from its public investment. In simple terms, the country could achieve much better infrastructure results with the resources it already has if systems worked more effectively.

The Weak Link: Project Planning

One of the most serious concerns is how projects are chosen and prepared. Namibia does not have a mandatory, standardized method for assessing whether a proposed project makes strong economic sense. Risk analysis is inconsistent, and political projects are rarely rejected.

This matters because weak appraisal leads to unrealistic cost estimates and overly optimistic timelines. When projects are not properly prepared, delays and cost overruns become common. That, in turn, contributes to the persistent under-execution of the development budget.

Project selection processes also need improvement. Although guidelines exist, projects are not drawn from a well-prepared pipeline of carefully evaluated options. Without a strong selection framework, there is a risk that high-profile projects crowd out more beneficial but less visible ones.

Procurement and Maintenance Problems

Even when projects are approved, implementation faces hurdles. Procurement rules require competitive bidding, but in practice, non-competitive methods and contract extensions are widely used. Monitoring systems are fragmented, and procurement data are not consistently analyzed. This weakens transparency and can slow project delivery.

Maintenance is another quiet but critical issue. In sectors like roads, maintenance systems are relatively structured. But across central government, maintenance planning is inconsistent and budgets do not clearly separate maintenance from new construction. Without proper upkeep, infrastructure deteriorates faster, leading to higher long-term costs and lower service quality.

Improving procurement transparency, strengthening oversight, and ensuring consistent maintenance planning could significantly raise the value of public spending.

Climate Change: A Growing Risk

Namibia is highly vulnerable to climate change. It is one of the driest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and already faces rising temperatures, recurring droughts, and more frequent extreme weather events. These risks threaten water supplies, electricity systems, and transport infrastructure.

Although Namibia is a net carbon sink due to its land sector, climate resilience is not yet fully built into public investment decisions. Project appraisal and selection processes do not consistently include climate risk analysis. Climate-related spending is not centrally tracked in the budget.

This gap is significant. Infrastructure built today must withstand tomorrow's climate. Without climate-aware planning, the country risks investing in assets that may become costly to repair or replace.

The Road Ahead

The overall message is clear: Namibia's infrastructure ambitions are bold, but delivery systems must improve. The country's institutional framework is broadly sound, and reforms such as a new Public Financial Management Bill offer opportunities for progress.

To turn ambition into results, Namibia must strengthen project appraisal, tighten procurement practices, improve maintenance planning, and integrate climate resilience into every stage of investment.

In short, the future of Namibia's development depends not just on how much it spends, but on how well it manages every dollar invested.