AfDB Rethinks Strategy as Conflict and Insecurity Strain Africa’s Development

Conflict is reshaping Africa's development landscape at an alarming pace. According to data from institutions such as the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, political violence across the continent has more than doubled over the past decade. Fatalities have surged, and more than 46 million Africans are now forcibly displaced. Around 250 million people live in fragile or conflict-affected settings.

Military spending continues to rise, often at the expense of social services and infrastructure. Conflict is estimated to cut an average of 2.5 percentage points from annual GDP growth. At the same time, climate change is worsening food insecurity, intensifying competition over land and water, and deepening social tensions. For development institutions, the environment is becoming more unpredictable and more dangerous.

Development in the Line of Fire

For the African Development Bank, these trends are not abstract statistics. They directly affect how projects are planned, financed and delivered. The Bank has long worked in fragile states and has integrated conflict and resilience into its strategies for more than two decades. Its Ten-Year Strategy for 2024 to 2033 goes further by making peace and resilience clear priorities.

However, the scale of insecurity is growing. As of April 2024, nearly one-fifth of the Bank's total portfolio was exposed to significant security risks. Investments in insecure environments have increased sharply since 2018, particularly in Nigeria, Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia.

These are countries where conflict, insurgency, or political instability have disrupted infrastructure projects, health services and energy investments. In several cases, project timelines have stretched far beyond their original targets, and disbursement rates have slowed.

Rising Costs and Delays

The impact of insecurity is visible in performance data. The share of problematic projects in high-risk countries has more than doubled in recent years. In Nigeria, for example, projects are taking longer to complete and funds are being disbursed more slowly. In Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, insurgency has delayed major transport projects. In Ethiopia and eastern DRC, conflict has damaged infrastructure and limited access to project sites.

These delays come at a price. Bank staff estimates that projects in insecure environments often cost 5 to 10 percent more than planned, with some exceeding far higher overruns. Fixed infrastructure, such as roads, power plants and water systems, is especially vulnerable because it cannot be moved when violence erupts.

Security concerns also limit field supervision and discourage experienced contractors from bidding. Supply chains are disrupted. Government officials and project staff are frequently replaced in unstable political environments, causing further delays. High levels of undisbursed funds in some fragile countries highlight missed opportunities for economic and social progress.

Adapting on the Ground

Despite these challenges, the Bank has not withdrawn from fragile settings. In Somalia, where security risks prevent the opening of a full country office, the Bank has used remote monitoring tools and partnerships with UN agencies and international NGOs to keep projects running. Digital platforms allow teams to collect field data without constant physical presence.

Procurement rules have been adjusted to allow more flexibility in high-risk contexts. Partnerships with organizations such as the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross help maintain operations in difficult areas. Staff security has also been strengthened through regional security officers and real-time alert systems.

Still, the report acknowledges that risk management is often reactive rather than forward-looking. Security responsibilities are frequently left to borrowing governments, and staff say clearer guidance is needed on how to apply flexible tools effectively.

A New Way Forward

The Bank now argues that staying engaged in fragile contexts requires a more systematic approach. It plans to strengthen its physical presence in high-risk countries and build specialized internal capacity for security risk analysis. A standardized risk classification system, updated regularly, would help guide project design and supervision.

The Bank also suggests using more flexible and less capital-intensive project models in insecure areas. Community-based projects, adaptive delivery methods and results-based financing could reduce exposure to sudden security shocks. Importantly, the Bank wants to share responsibility for security risk management with borrowers rather than transferring the burden entirely.

The message is clear. Insecurity is no longer a side issue for development in Africa. It is central to how projects succeed or fail. For the African Development Bank, remaining effective in this environment will depend on becoming more agile, more data-driven and more responsive to rapidly changing realities on the ground.