Mexico's Fiscal Predictions: Growth, Deficit, and Inflation Insights

Mexico's government has projected economic growth ranging from 1.9% to 2.9% for the upcoming year, according to the finance ministry's draft budget released on Wednesday.

The forecast for 2023 remains steady at 1.8% to 2.8%. Currently the second largest economy in Latin America, Mexico is expected to report a primary fiscal deficit of 4.1% of GDP this year, which is predicted to decrease to 3.5% of GDP by 2027. In 2025, the fiscal deficit was at 4.3% of GDP, as per ministry data.

Looking ahead, headline inflation is anticipated to be 3.7% at the close of 2026, nearing the central bank's 3% target by the end of next year. The interest rate is projected to conclude 2026 at 6.3% and to be 5.5% by 2027. As an oil-producing nation, Mexico expects its export mix price to average $77.3 per barrel in the current year, potentially decreasing to $54.7 per barrel by 2027. Oil production is set at 1.79 million barrels per day this year and is projected to increase to 1.81 million barrels per day in the next year.

The Mexican peso's exchange rate is anticipated to be 18.4 pesos per U.S. dollar by the end of this year, with a slight depreciation expected to 18.6 pesos next year.