India's Strategic Shift: Pivot from Russian Oil Under U.S. Pressure

In January, India's imports of Russian oil saw a notable decline, continuing the trend that began in December. This shift is largely due to Indian refiners seeking alternative sources under Western sanctions pressure and ongoing U.S.-India trade discussions, according to Reuters and data analyses.

Industry experts warn that Moscow could face a substantial downturn in oil and gas revenue, a crucial component of the Russian government’s budget, if India is fully persuaded by Washington to halt Russian oil imports. Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with India, cutting tariffs to 18% in exchange for New Delhi's commitment to cease Russian oil purchases and reduce trade barriers.

Despite these developments, Russia remains optimistic about its oil trade relation with India. The Russian foreign ministry does not believe India has shifted its stance post-U.S. trade deal. Meanwhile, India's largest refiner, Indian Oil Corp, plans to increase Brazilian crude imports next fiscal year, amid decreasing Russian shipments.