High Stakes: German Bond Yields and European Rate Hike Prospects Amid Middle East Turmoil

German government bond yields hovered near multi-year highs on Thursday as market bets on European Central Bank rate hikes intensified, driven by inflation fears stoked by Middle East tensions. A surge in oil prices, fueled by worries over prolonged disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, added to inflationary pressures.

The yield on Germany’s 10-year government bond remained flat at 2.93%, following a peak of 2.963%, the highest since October 2023. Money markets are confidently pricing in a rate hike by the European Central Bank by July, with a 60% probability for a second increase before year-end. Economists suggest policy moves are unlikely next week unless disruptions in Hormuz persist for months.

Despite a potential inflation shock in the euro area, economists like Berenberg’s Holger Schmieding consider it temporary. As geopolitical risks unfold, some analysts see space for one or two ECB hikes, while others advise caution, noting bond market volatility. Spreads in bond yields, particularly between Germany and Italy, widen amid the rising geopolitical uncertainty.