World Bank Report Estimates $183M in Damages from Deadly Afghanistan Earthquake

The World Bank Group has released its Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimate (GRADE) Report on the 6.0 magnitude earthquake that struck eastern Afghanistan on August 31, revealing an estimated US$183 million in direct physical damages to buildings and infrastructure. The quake — the deadliest in Afghanistan since 1998 — claimed around 2,000 lives and affected between 500,000 and 1.3 million people, causing widespread destruction across rural communities already burdened by poverty, fragility, and limited public services.

Assessing the Scale of the Disaster

According to the report, the total direct economic loss represents just over 1% of Afghanistan's GDP for FY 2023, highlighting the severe economic impact on one of the world's most vulnerable nations. The provinces of Kunarha and Nangarhar bore the brunt of the destruction, accounting for 97% of total damages, estimated at US$134.7 million and US$42.6 million, respectively.

The quake devastated residential buildings, which made up 35% of total losses, followed by non-residential structures and agricultural assets. Thousands of homes constructed with earthen and stone masonry, heavy roofs, and weak mortar collapsed during the tremors, leaving families homeless. The rural nature of the affected areas meant significant losses to grain storage facilities, livestock shelters, and irrigation systems, compounding the challenges to food security.

Public infrastructure, including schools, health facilities, and community water systems, also suffered substantial damage, disrupting essential services at a time when access to healthcare and education was already constrained.

Measuring Vulnerability Beyond Physical Damage

Beyond the physical impact, the report introduces a Socio-economic Vulnerability Index, offering a preliminary assessment of how pre-existing conditions amplify disaster impacts. The analysis highlights that communities already facing limited healthcare access, gender inequality, poor market connectivity, weak WASH (water, sanitation, and hygiene) systems, and ongoing conflict are at far greater risk of long-term recovery setbacks.

"This convergence of vulnerabilities makes recovery slower and more complex," the report notes. "Targeted interventions in the most at-risk districts are critical to prevent further socioeconomic deterioration."

Immediate Response and Early Recovery Efforts

In the immediate aftermath of the disaster, the World Bank mobilized up to US$15 million in emergency support from existing projects to assist affected populations. These funds are being directed toward critical livelihood restoration, infrastructure repair, and essential health services:

• Through the Community Resilience and Livelihoods Project, the Bank is financing cash-for-work programs that help restore essential community assets, including village roads, irrigation canals, retaining walls, and water reservoirs.

• Social grants are being distributed to poor and vulnerable households to address immediate needs for food, shelter, and livelihoods.

• Under the Afghanistan Health Emergency Response Project, the Bank has deployed medical supplies and emergency care services to 24 project-financed health facilities, ensuring that survivors receive urgent medical attention.

"The World Bank stands in solidarity with the people of Afghanistan following the devastating earthquake in the eastern provinces," said Faris Hadad-Zervos, World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan. "Our priority is to work closely with partners to support emergency response, recovery, and long-term resilience—ensuring that critical services reach the most vulnerable, especially women and children. We remain committed to helping Afghan communities rebuild stronger and safer."

Long-Term Recovery and Reconstruction Needs

While the direct damage estimate stands at US$183 million, reconstruction and recovery costs are expected to far exceed this amount, as rebuilding efforts must address not only physical infrastructure but also livelihood recovery, social protection, and climate resilience.

The report emphasizes the need for a comprehensive recovery strategy that integrates humanitarian relief with long-term development planning, ensuring that rebuilding efforts are inclusive, gender-sensitive, and conflict-aware. It also underscores the importance of resilient reconstruction standards, particularly in housing and public infrastructure, to mitigate the impact of future earthquakes and natural hazards.

"Recovery must go beyond bricks and mortar," the report notes. "It requires investing in systems that reduce vulnerability—strengthening health care, education, water management, and community preparedness to withstand future shocks."

Advancing Disaster Risk Management in Fragile Contexts

The GRADE report was prepared under the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), with financial support from the Government of Japan's Ministry of Finance through the program for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in Developing Countries.

Using advanced remote-sensing and modeling techniques, the GRADE methodology provides a rapid, reliable estimate of physical damages within two weeks of a disaster, serving as a key decision-making tool for governments and partners. The methodology focuses on direct damage to assets, excluding indirect losses such as income disruption or broader economic downturns.

Over the past decade, the World Bank and GFDRR have supported countries worldwide in building resilience to natural disasters through risk assessment, financial protection mechanisms, and early recovery financing. In Afghanistan, this work is part of ongoing efforts to strengthen community resilience, social protection systems, and climate adaptation programs amid compounding crises.

The Path Forward: Building Back Better

The World Bank report serves as both an assessment and a call to action. It highlights the urgency of scaling up investments in disaster preparedness, improving building standards, and mainstreaming resilience into development planning—particularly in a country where more than half of the population lives below the poverty line and climate-related hazards are intensifying.

As Afghanistan continues to navigate the aftermath of the August earthquake, the focus will increasingly turn to reconstruction planning, international coordination, and community-led recovery. The World Bank and its partners are expected to play a central role in mobilizing technical expertise and financial resources to support these efforts.

"We must turn tragedy into opportunity," Hadad-Zervos added. "By rebuilding safer homes, schools, and health facilities, Afghanistan can emerge from this disaster with stronger foundations for the future."