Billions in green funding, little impact on SDG 15 progress

A new international study has found that green official development assistance (ODA), widely promoted as a key financial tool for environmental protection, is delivering only limited direct impact on forest conservation outcomes in developing countries. The research raises fresh concerns about the effectiveness of global funding mechanisms designed to support Sustainable Development Goal 15, which focuses on life on land, biodiversity protection, and ecosystem restoration.

Published in Forests and titled "The Role of Green Official Development Assistance in the Implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 15 Using Explainable AI," the study applies advanced machine learning and explainable artificial intelligence techniques to assess how green ODA influences environmental performance across 90 developing countries between 2010 and 2023.

Green ODA expands globally but delivers uneven environmental impact

The analysis is rooted in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), introduced in 2015 to guide global action on poverty, inequality, and environmental degradation through 2030. Among these goals, SDG 15 is considered critical due to its focus on terrestrial ecosystems, forest management, and biodiversity preservation.

Despite growing international commitments, progress toward SDG 15 has been uneven and, in many cases, stagnating. Environmental targets, including those linked to climate change and land ecosystems, are among the most lagging globally. This trend has intensified the reliance on international financial instruments such as ODA to support developing countries that lack the institutional and financial capacity to manage environmental degradation.

Green ODA, a subset of development assistance specifically targeting environmental objectives, has gained prominence as a policy tool aimed at improving climate resilience, biodiversity, and ecosystem restoration. The study highlights that total ODA nearly doubled between 2010 and 2023, while green ODA also increased, though with significant fluctuations, particularly during the COVID-19 period when funding priorities shifted toward healthcare.

However, the research finds that green ODA still represents only about one-fifth of total development assistance, limiting its overall influence. Its distribution across sectors is also uneven, with the majority concentrated in general environmental projects, followed by climate mitigation and adaptation, while biodiversity and desertification receive comparatively smaller shares.

More critically, the study shows that increasing financial flows alone have not translated into proportional improvements in forest sustainability outcomes. The relationship between green ODA and SDG 15 performance is neither consistent nor uniformly positive across countries, pointing to deeper structural inefficiencies in how aid is allocated and utilized.

Structural and environmental factors outweigh aid in determining outcomes

Using a machine learning framework supported by SHAP, an explainable AI technique, the study identifies the key drivers of SDG 15 performance across countries. The results reveal that environmental and demographic factors play a far more significant role than financial aid.

Variables such as water stress, tree cover loss, population pressure, and the representativeness of protected areas emerge as the most influential determinants of forest sustainability. These factors consistently outweigh the contribution of green ODA in predicting SDG 15 outcomes.

Green ODA, on the other hand, ranks among the least influential variables in the model, with only a minimal and slightly negative overall contribution to SDG 15 performance. This finding suggests that financial assistance alone cannot overcome underlying environmental challenges or institutional weaknesses.

The study further highlights that socioeconomic indicators, including human development adjusted for environmental pressure, also influence outcomes, often in complex and contradictory ways. Improvements in living standards do not automatically lead to better environmental performance, and in some cases may increase pressure on ecosystems.

These findings reinforce the idea that SDG 15 is shaped by a multidimensional interplay of environmental, economic, and social factors. Forest conservation is not simply a function of funding levels but depends on governance quality, resource management, and the capacity of countries to implement sustainable policies.

The research also underscores the existence of trade-offs within the SDG framework. Efforts to expand agriculture, improve livelihoods, or accelerate economic growth can conflict with environmental goals, leading to deforestation, resource depletion, and ecosystem degradation.

Aid effectiveness depends on governance and institutional capacity

The effectiveness of green ODA varies sharply depending on the institutional context of recipient countries. Rather than acting as a primary driver of environmental improvement, green ODA appears to function as an enabling or amplifying mechanism.

The analysis shows that green ODA has a stronger and statistically significant positive impact in countries that already exhibit higher levels of SDG 15 performance. In these contexts, aid supports existing systems, strengthens policies, and accelerates ongoing progress in forest conservation.

On the other hand, in countries with lower levels of environmental performance, green ODA often has little impact or may even contribute to negative outcomes. Weak governance, limited institutional capacity, and competing development priorities can undermine the effectiveness of aid, reducing its ability to deliver sustainable results.

This pattern is further confirmed through the study's gap index analysis, which compares the allocation of green ODA with its actual contribution to SDG 15 performance. High-performing countries tend to generate greater environmental outcomes relative to the aid they receive, while lower-performing countries show a mismatch between funding and impact.

The findings align with broader research suggesting that development assistance is most effective when supported by strong institutions, transparent governance, and coherent policy frameworks. Without these conditions, financial resources alone are insufficient to drive meaningful environmental change.

The study also raises concerns about the design and classification of green ODA projects. Issues such as inconsistent labeling, overlapping categories, and potential misclassification of environmental markers can distort the measurement of aid flows and complicate efforts to track their effectiveness.