Rising Temperatures Could Expose More Students to Extreme Heat in Schools by 2050

Researchers from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), using climate modelling data produced through the Climate Hazards Centre and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme, have developed a new method to estimate how rising temperatures could affect students in schools. Their analysis combines climate projections with geographic data on school locations to determine how many primary schools and students may face increasing exposure to extreme heat by 2050.

The research highlights a growing concern for education systems around the world. As global temperatures rise, schools are becoming more vulnerable to extreme heat, which can affect students' health, comfort and ability to learn effectively. The study aims to help policymakers understand where these risks are highest so they can plan better climate adaptation strategies for schools.

Why Heat Matters for Learning

Extreme heat is not only uncomfortable but can also interfere with learning. Studies have shown that high temperatures can reduce concentration, increase fatigue and make it harder for students to perform well in class. In many countries, school buildings were designed decades ago when extreme heat was less common. As a result, many classrooms lack proper ventilation or cooling systems.

When temperatures rise above comfortable levels, students may struggle to stay focused during lessons. Teachers also face challenges in maintaining productive classroom environments. The OECD researchers argue that identifying which schools are most exposed to heat is the first step toward protecting students and improving resilience in education systems.

Combining Climate Science with School Data

To estimate heat exposure in schools, researchers combined two major sources of information. The first was a 2024 OECD survey on primary schools that collected data on school locations and student enrolment. The survey covered schools in 27 OECD and partner countries, although only 13 countries provided precise location information that could be used for climate analysis.

These countries include Bulgaria, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Denmark, England in the United Kingdom, France, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg and the United States. Together, they represent tens of thousands of schools and millions of students.

The second dataset came from global climate models that estimate how temperatures may change under different future emissions scenarios. The climate data divides the world into small grid cells, each covering roughly five to six kilometres. For each grid cell, scientists can calculate how many days temperatures exceed certain thresholds.

Mapping Hot Days to Schools

The researchers focused on days when temperatures rise above 30°C, which they describe as "hot days". These temperatures can make classrooms uncomfortable, especially in buildings without air conditioning.

Using geographic mapping techniques, each school was placed on the climate grid. This allowed researchers to assign the temperature characteristics of that location to the school. In other words, they could estimate how many hot days each school currently experiences and how many it might face by 2050.

Because the school dataset also included enrolment numbers, researchers could calculate how many students are exposed to these temperatures. The results show major differences within countries. In Colombia, for example, schools in tropical lowland areas already experience very frequent hot days, while schools in mountainous regions see far fewer.

In Europe, the analysis shows that southern regions face higher heat exposure. Schools in southern France already experience many hot days each year and could see significant increases in the future. In England, the largest increases are expected in densely populated areas around London and southern regions.

A Growing Challenge for Education Systems

When the data is examined at the national level, the trend becomes clear. By 2050, a larger share of students in many countries will attend schools that experience frequent hot days. Even countries that historically had mild summers are expected to see rising exposure to heat.

The researchers note that their method has some limitations. It focuses on the number of days above a certain temperature rather than how extreme the heat becomes. The analysis also assumes that schools and student populations remain in the same locations in the future. In reality, population changes or migration could shift where students live and study.

The study also considers that students are not in school every day of the year. When researchers adjust the analysis to account for school holidays, the overall pattern remains the same. Heat exposure in schools is still expected to increase in most countries, though the effect may be slightly smaller in places with long summer breaks.

Preparing Schools for a Warmer Future

Despite these limitations, the study demonstrates how combining climate science with education data can help governments prepare for future challenges. By identifying which schools are most exposed to rising temperatures, policymakers can take targeted action.

Possible solutions include improving school building design, installing cooling systems, improving ventilation or adjusting school schedules during extreme heat events. Investments in climate-resilient infrastructure could help ensure that classrooms remain safe and comfortable for students.

As climate change continues to reshape daily life, classrooms may become one of the places where its effects are most directly felt. Understanding these risks early gives education systems a chance to adapt and protect students' ability to learn in a warming world.