Fitch Ratings Adjusts India's GDP Growth Forecast Amid Oil Price Volatility

Fitch Ratings has increased India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 7.5% and next year to 6.7%, reflecting a modest upward adjustment from previous estimates. Concerns about oil prices and inflation are central to this revision.

The agency predicted global crude oil prices to average USD 70 per barrel by 2026, with geopolitical tensions influencing market dynamics. However, they caution that prices lingering at higher levels could pose a significant risk to global supply chains.

India's economy shows resilience despite signs of slowdown, with consumer spending and investment driving growth. However, rising inflation may constrain incomes and spending power in the near term. Fitch expects investment growth to pick up as financial conditions become more favorable.