Cocoa Futures: Navigating Surplus and Price Balancing in 2026

Cocoa prices are predicted to modestly increase by the end of the year but will remain significantly lower than the peak prices seen last year, as per a Reuters poll of industry analysts and traders. The ongoing global surplus in cocoa production is the primary reason for the subdued market expectations.

The median forecast suggests that London cocoa futures on ICE will end 2026 at 2,750 pounds per metric ton, marking a 16.6% uptick from the current position but still 37% lower than the end of 2025 levels. Similarly, New York cocoa prices are projected to close the year at $3,350 per ton, reflecting a mere 1.9% increase from Monday's close yet 45% lower than end-2025 levels.

Contributing factors include large harvests due to favorable weather and increased agricultural inputs in response to previously high prices. Key producers like Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Ecuador are expected to increase their outputs, further exerting downward pressure on prices. Some industry experts anticipate a potential price rebound as reduced costs reach consumers, possibly boosting demand.