Cocoa Futures Forecast: Surplus Clouds Price Prospects

Cocoa prices are projected to achieve modest gains by the end of the year, though they will remain below last year's peak levels due to a significant global surplus, according to a Reuters poll involving 10 traders and analysts conducted on Monday.

The poll results indicate that London cocoa futures on ICE are expected to conclude 2026 at 2,750 pounds per metric ton, a 16.6% increase from Monday's close but 37% lower than the end of 2025. Concurrently, New York cocoa futures are forecast to finish the year at $3,350 per ton, representing a 1.9% rise from Monday's close, yet 45% down from the close of 2025.

After a substantial surge in 2024, cocoa prices have steeply declined. Producers have turned to measures like shrinking chocolate bar sizes and using alternative fats to manage costs. Meanwhile, favorable weather conditions and better farm practices have bolstered cocoa supply. Expect a price rebound as consumer demand strengthens, predicts consultant Raphael Felenbok.