A Global Plan to Fix Landslide Data and Strengthen Early Warning Systems

Landslides kill more than 4,000 people each year and cause an estimated US$20 billion in economic losses worldwide. Over the past century, more than 110,000 lives have been lost. Yet compared to earthquakes or hurricanes, landslides often go unnoticed in global headlines. Many occur in remote mountain regions, far from media attention.

A new World Bank research paper argues that the world is underestimating the true scale of the problem. The study, prepared by the Bank's Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global Department, says a major reason is simple: we do not have good, consistent global data on landslides. Without reliable information, it is hard to understand the risk, let alone reduce it.

The danger is especially severe in low- and middle-income countries across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Rapid urban growth, deforestation, road construction, and climate change are pushing communities onto unstable slopes. When heavy rain or earthquakes strike, entire hillsides can collapse, destroying homes, roads, schools, and hospitals in minutes.

Why the Numbers Don't Tell the Full Story

Official disaster databases suggest landslides account for a small share of global disaster deaths today. But researchers say this does not mean the risk has declined. Many smaller landslides are never recorded, especially in rural or poor areas.

In the early 1970s, landslides were responsible for about 14 percent of recorded natural hazard deaths. Today, the share appears lower in global databases, largely because reporting systems have changed. Some events are missed entirely. Others are classified under broader categories like floods or storms.

This undercounting has consequences. If a disaster does not show up clearly in national or global statistics, it is less likely to attract funding for prevention. Roads continue to be built on unstable slopes. Settlements expand into high-risk areas. Early warning systems remain weak or nonexistent.

The Data Problem Behind the Risk

The World Bank study explains that modern disaster management depends on good data. To predict where landslides might occur, scientists need to know exactly when past landslides happened, where they took place, what triggered them, and how large they were.

But many existing databases lack these details. Dates are often recorded only by month or year. Locations may be linked to a nearby town instead of a precise slope. Different countries use different classification systems. Some do not distinguish between rockfalls, debris flows, and deep-seated slides, even though these behave very differently.

When models are built using incomplete or vague data, predictions become less accurate. In some cases, models may reflect where people live rather than where slopes are actually unstable. That weakens early warning systems and can create a false sense of security in areas that appear "low risk" simply because events were never recorded there.

A Simple Three-Step Solution

To fix this, the researchers propose a three-tiered global standard for landslide data.

The first level is basic. Every significant landslide should be recorded with its location, date, and a short description. Even this simple step would improve national awareness and help identify general hotspots.

The second level adds more detail. Records should include accurate coordinates, the type of landslide, what triggered it, and an estimate of its size or impact. With this information, countries can create reliable national risk maps and develop rainfall thresholds for early warning systems.

The third and most advanced level includes detailed mapping of the affected area, information about soil and rock conditions, and integration with real-time monitoring tools such as rainfall sensors and satellite imagery. This level supports advanced forecasting and near real-time warnings.

Importantly, the system is designed to be flexible. Countries can start small and improve their data systems over time, depending on resources and capacity.

Building Resilience Before the Next Collapse

Climate change is expected to increase extreme rainfall in many parts of the world. Glaciers are melting, permafrost is thawing, and mountain environments are becoming more unstable. At the same time, infrastructure investment in transport, hydropower, and tourism is expanding into high-risk terrain.

The researchers argue that landslide data should be treated as essential resilience infrastructure, just like flood monitoring systems or earthquake sensors. Better data means better planning. Governments can design safer roads, avoid building in unstable zones, and issue more accurate early warnings.

In the end, landslides are not just natural events. Their impact depends on where people live, how infrastructure is built, and how prepared communities are. By improving how landslides are recorded and understood, countries can move from reacting to disasters to preventing them. And that shift could save thousands of lives in the years ahead.