Assam polls: BJP banks on organisational strength, welfare push amid anti-incumbency

The ruling BJP-led NDA in Assam will enter the elections to the 126-member assembly banking on its governance record and organisational strength, even as it faces the usual challenges of anti-incumbency and local grievances. Seeking a third consecutive term, the BJP under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has stepped up its political outreach, highlighting development initiatives, welfare schemes and peace accords, while the opposition is attempting to corner the ruling alliance on issues ranging from unemployment to alleged corruption and concerns among minorities. Strength: The BJP has been on the rise in the state since the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and came to power in Assam for the first time in 2016 by winning 60 seats. It improved its tally to 64 in the 2021 assembly elections. The party, which has been in power for the past decade, has sought to consolidate its position through various welfare schemes targeting different sections of society. Development projects undertaken in recent years and the signing of several peace accords with insurgent groups are also being highlighted by the party as key achievements ahead of the polls. Sarma's assertive political style and visibility across the state are also among its strengths. Frequent visits by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and other senior BJP leaders are also expected to help the party reinforce its ''double-engine government'' pitch. The BJP's organisational network across much of the state is also seen as a significant advantage going into the elections. Weakness: Anti-incumbency after two consecutive terms could pose a challenge for the BJP, particularly in constituencies where development concerns persist or where sitting legislators face local resentment. The party may also face resistance from sections of minority voters, particularly Bengali-speaking Muslims, amid criticism from the opposition over the government's eviction drives and rhetoric around illegal immigration. Opposition parties have also raised allegations of corruption against Sarma and his family members, which the BJP has denied. Issues such as long-pending demands of six communities for Scheduled Tribe status could also figure in the electoral discourse. Opportunity: A fragmented opposition could work to the ruling coalition's advantage, with divisions among anti-BJP parties potentially splitting votes in several constituencies. The state government's various welfare schemes, especially those aimed at women, youth and economically weaker sections, are expected to play a key role in shaping voter preferences in favour of the ruling party. The party will also seek to leverage its stance on illegal immigration to strengthen its support base. Threat: Internal dissent, particularly among ticket aspirants who may be denied nominations, could pose challenges if not managed effectively. The CM's combative political style and sharp attacks, particularly those against Muslims, may polarise voters in certain constituencies. Complacency among party workers after a decade in power is being seen as a factor the BJP may need to guard against.