EXPLAINER-Swiss to vote on proposal to cap the population

Switzerland will vote on capping its population at 10 million ​until 2050, a proposal that speaks to widespread concerns about high ‌immigration ​but risks depriving the country of much-needed workers and shattering relations with the European Union.

A popular vote is set for June 14, the government said this week. WHAT IS THE PROPOSAL?

The initiative, launched by the right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP), wants to write into Switzerland's constitution that the permanent resident population of the ‌country shall not exceed 10 million people before 2050. In subsequent years, the limit would be adjusted annually by the Swiss government to account for any birth surplus.

Under the slogan "preserving what we love," backers of the initiative want to limit options for asylum-seekers and their families to permanently reside in Switzerland if the population exceeds 9.5 million people before 2050. In that event, the Swiss government "shall also seek to renegotiate international agreements that drive ‌population growth," according to the proposal.

If the 10-million threshold is permanently crossed, authorities would be required to take all available measures to comply with the limit. That explicitly includes terminating a key agreement with ‌the EU on the free movement of people. WHAT IS BEHIND IT?

Switzerland's population has risen rapidly this century, stirring concern that infrastructure is being stretched, rents are too high, and wages under pressure. While the population only passed 7 million in the mid-1990s, it is now over 9 million, growing faster than in most neighbouring countries and putting Switzerland on track to hit the SVP threshold before mid-century.

SVP, which is the largest force in parliament, has long capitalised on the issue, making anti-immigration rhetoric a cornerstone of ⁠its political campaigns. Eager ​to quell calls for population curbs, Switzerland has secured ⁠a "protection clause" in its trade negotiations with the EU, already testing the single market's principle of free movement of people.

Much of the population increase in Switzerland has been due to growth in the workforce driven by its business-friendly, low-tax model and higher ⁠wages. WHAT COULD BE THE CONSEQUENCES?

The government argues that, even before the long-term 2050 timeframe, the initiative would start jeopardising prosperity and straining EU-Switzerland ties which are vital to the local economy. Its acceptance would require a fundamental realignment of Swiss migration ​policy and Swiss relations with the EU, the governing Federal Council added.

Business association Economisuisse has termed the proposal "the chaos initiative". "Our country will continue to depend on labor migration in the ⁠future," the group said in a joint paper with the Swiss Employers Association, predicting that without foreign workers, companies would relocate abroad.

Opponents have warned of labor shortages in the healthcare system, public transport, restaurants and construction. HOW LIKELY IS THE PROPOSAL TO PASS?

While the Federal ⁠Council, ​most political parties and business associations oppose the proposal, two polls published last year found narrow popular majorities in favor of the initiative. In November, 48% of surveyed voters said they were in favor or inclined to be in favor of the SVP project in a poll by research institute LeeWas on behalf of two newspapers, with 41% of respondents against and 11% still undecided.

In June and July, a ⁠survey by research company Sotomo on behalf of the Swiss Trade Union Federation also found that 48% of respondents intended to vote "yes" or "probably yes", with 45% planning to vote "no" or "probably no", and 7% ⁠undecided. The 10 million population cap has a good chance ⁠of being accepted, Sotomo concluded at the time.

"A decline in support during the referendum campaign - as is common with other initiatives - is by no means certain," the researchers added, noting concerns over immigration would likely be sharpened by the referendum campaign itself. In 2014, a similar proposal for strict immigration limits passed a ‌popular vote but was never ‌fully implemented. It is unclear how the 10 million cap, if accepted, would be put into practice.