UNDP: 411 Million Could Move from Poverty to Security by 2030 with Action

A bold new United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) analysis warns that 411 million people worldwide could transition from poverty to basic security by 2030—but only if governments adopt a new model for inclusive growth built on job-intensive economies, adaptive social protection systems, and fair wage policies.

The findings, unveiled in UNDP's latest policy brief, "Poverty-to-Prosperity Transitions," call for a shift in the way global progress is measured and achieved. Rather than focusing solely on those living below the poverty line, UNDP urges countries to establish "prosperity floors"—context-specific thresholds that define what people need not just to survive, but to live securely and withstand future crises.

"Crossing a US$3-a-day threshold is not enough if families are still one emergency—one illness, job loss, or climate crisis—away from being unable to afford housing, food, and essential services," said Haoliang Xu, UNDP Acting Administrator. "Our report demonstrates that, by 2030, 411 million people could move from poverty to basic security—if governments act together, and act now."

From Poverty Lines to Prosperity Floors

Traditional poverty metrics identify people who cannot meet minimum subsistence needs, but UNDP's new "prosperity floor" approach recognizes that escaping poverty is not the same as achieving long-term well-being.

A prosperity floor is defined as the minimum level of income, assets, and resilience needed for a person or household to remain stable even in the face of economic shocks, natural disasters, health emergencies, or climate crises.

This approach represents a paradigm shift in development thinking—away from short-term poverty alleviation toward sustained economic security and social mobility.

According to UNDP's analysis across 126 developing countries, more than one-third of people in these nations live below their prosperity floor, meaning they remain just one crisis away from falling back into poverty.

"The prosperity floor allows policymakers to see who is at risk of falling through the cracks, even if they're no longer technically 'poor'," said Xu. "It's about preventing backsliding, not just achieving temporary gains."

Poverty Reduction Is Not Enough

The policy brief, released ahead of the Second World Summit for Social Development, warns that traditional poverty reduction tools—such as cash transfers and cash-for-work programmes—while important, are not sufficient to build lasting economic security.

Instead, UNDP calls for a system-wide strategy that integrates three mutually reinforcing pillars:

1. Job-Intensive and Inclusive Growth – Focusing on sectors that generate decent employment, particularly for women and youth, while investing in skills development for the digital and green economies.

2. Adaptive and Universal Social Protection – Establishing systems that respond quickly to crises such as pandemics, climate disasters, and price shocks, ensuring no one is left unprotected.

3. Fair Wage and Income Policies – Strengthening labor markets and ensuring workers earn living wages that reflect the true cost of resilience, not mere survival.

These measures, the report argues, are essential to convert vulnerability into resilience and temporary relief into permanent prosperity.

The State of Poverty and Inequality Today

While global poverty rates have fallen dramatically over the past three decades, progress has slowed and disparities have deepened.

• 1.1 billion people still experience acute multidimensional poverty, lacking access to health, education, and basic living standards.

• Two-thirds of the world's population live in countries where income inequality has worsened over the past decade.

• Poverty is increasingly concentrated in fragile, conflict-affected, and climate-vulnerable regions, where development gains are easily reversed.

• Climate change and demographic pressures are amplifying inequalities, pushing millions back into poverty through crop failures, floods, and extreme heat.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent global cost-of-living crises further exposed these vulnerabilities, with millions of households in developing countries sliding back into poverty after decades of progress.

"Progress has not only stalled—it's become more fragile," said Xu. "We need a new development model that makes prosperity sustainable, not precarious."

A New Benchmark for Global Development

The prosperity floor approach is designed to serve as both a measurement tool and policy target. Unlike poverty lines that measure deprivation, prosperity floors define what is needed for economic and social stability, taking into account local costs, risks, and capacities.

This means countries can tailor national prosperity benchmarks to their contexts—whether by improving access to healthcare and education, raising wages, expanding social insurance, or investing in climate-resilient infrastructure.

UNDP's analysis suggests that achieving prosperity floors would not only lift millions out of poverty but also protect hundreds of millions more from sliding backward, making economic progress resilient to shocks.

Linking Prosperity, Equity, and Climate Action

The UNDP report emphasizes that reducing poverty and addressing climate change are deeply interconnected goals. Economic shocks caused by environmental degradation, extreme weather, and biodiversity loss disproportionately affect the poor and near-poor.

By embedding prosperity goals within climate adaptation strategies, governments can safeguard livelihoods and enhance resilience. For example, job-intensive green sectors—such as renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, and ecosystem restoration—can create employment while protecting the environment.

UNDP also underscores that investing in resilient infrastructure and inclusive financial systems can buffer vulnerable communities from economic instability, thus preventing future poverty traps.

UNDP's Role in Advancing Sustainable Prosperity

With over 60 years of experience across 170 countries and territories, UNDP remains at the forefront of global poverty eradication and sustainable development. Through programs that strengthen governance, health systems, and social protection, the agency works to ensure that growth benefits everyone, not just a privileged few.

UNDP's "Poverty-to-Prosperity Transitions" brief builds on its ongoing efforts to help governments align national development plans with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, particularly Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1: No Poverty and SDG 10: Reduced Inequalities.

"With decisive, integrated action, we can break the cycle of vulnerability and deliver lasting prosperity," Xu said. "The past 30 years have shown that progress is possible. The next 30 must make that progress permanent—transforming poverty reduction into sustainable prosperity."

A Call to Action for Governments and Partners

The UNDP is urging governments, international financial institutions, and the private sector to adopt the prosperity floor framework and align national budgets with policies that ensure resilience for all.

This includes investing in education, healthcare, and social protection, as well as enabling inclusive labor markets that empower marginalized populations—especially women, youth, and rural communities.

The upcoming Second World Summit for Social Development is expected to serve as a pivotal moment to operationalize prosperity floors globally, setting measurable goals for sustainable, equitable growth.

Toward 2030: Making Prosperity Permanent

As the world approaches the halfway mark to the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals, the message from UNDP is clear: poverty eradication alone is not enough. The next frontier in development is ensuring that those who have escaped poverty stay out of it for good, with the economic security, resilience, and dignity that define true prosperity.

If adopted widely, the prosperity floor model could help millions achieve lasting financial stability, reshape fiscal policies to be more inclusive, and ensure that development progress becomes irreversible.