India Braces for Below-Normal Monsoon: IMD Forecast

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday that India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rains for 2026. The expected monsoon rainfall is projected to reach 92% of the long-period average, according to M Ravichandran, Secretary of the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences.

During a press conference, Ravichandran, alongside IMD Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, indicated that the 2026 southwest monsoon (June to September) rainfall over India is expected to be below normal, with quantitative predictions forecasting 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), subject to a model error of +- 5%.

Ravichandran highlighted influences such as weak La Nina-like Pacific conditions transitioning to neutrality and current neutral Indian Ocean Diapole conditions. However, climate models suggest the potential rise of positive Indian Ocean Diapole conditions later in the monsoon season, which may favorably impact rainfall levels.