India Braces for Below-Normal Monsoon in 2026: IMD Forecasts

New Delhi [India], April 13 (ANI) - The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected that the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall for 2026 is likely to be below normal, estimating it at 92 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The projection comes with a model error margin of plus or minus 5 percent.

According to the IMD, the LPA of seasonal rainfall from 1971 to 2020 measures 87 cm. The forecast reveals a higher likelihood of rainfall falling into 'below normal' and 'deficient' categories, with transitioning La Nina conditions moving towards ENSO-neutral. However, the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) indicates potential development of El Nino influences.

Furthermore, while POSITIVE IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) conditions might develop later in the season, current atmospheric patterns still show La Nina attributes. Reduced snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere could inversely impact India’s monsoon, with forecasts predicting below-normal rainfall across many regions, sparing a few areas in the Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsula, where normal to above-normal rains might occur.