Surging Fertiliser Prices Challenge Ukraine's Corn Future

A sharp rise in fertiliser prices is unlikely to prompt major changes in Ukraine's crop-planting plans this year. However, it may lead to a reduction in fertiliser-intensive corn planting by 2027, a senior official noted on Thursday. The conflict in Iran has led to increased gas and oil prices, thereby elevating the cost of fertilisers derived from these resources.

Ukraine, a significant global corn exporter, heavily relies on fertiliser for its crop yields. Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotskiy shared with Reuters that any significant impact on corn acreage won't occur until 2027. "This year, it is unlikely - everything has already been prepared for sowing," he stated, noting that corn or soybeans have yet to be planted, though there is ongoing planting of spring barley and wheat.

Before the conflict, the economic forecast anticipated corn acreage to remain around 4.4 million hectares by 2026. However, the current outlook remains unissued. In 2025, fertiliser imports increased by nearly 14% to 3.3 million tons. Kostyantyn Kinzhalov of Barva Invest highlighted a 65% rise in urea prices this year. With suppliers already sold out for weeks, acquiring supplies has become increasingly challenging.