EMERGING MARKETS-EM assets steady after Wall St rout; Hungary eyes first rate cut since 2024

Most emerging-market stocks ‌and currencies ​moved in a holding pattern on Tuesday, following an overnight Wall Street selloff, while Hungary stepped into the spotlight ahead of what could be its first rate cut since 2024.

MSCI's index tracking EM stocks inched up 0.4%, while ‌the currency equivalent was flat. The real test is for the forint. Traders are betting that the central bank will restart its easing cycle with a 25-basis-point cut, taking the base rate down to 6.25% later in the day.

Hungarian stocks fell 1%, while the forint slipped 0.6% against the euro. For months, the forint has been one of ‌the carry-trade favourites in EM, buoyed by Hungary's position as one of the EU's highest interest-rate holdouts.

But that tailwind could be tested. The currency has ‌backed off its strongest levels in more than two and a half years this month as inflation prints increasingly hint at a cooling economy, and as investors begin to shift from "high rates for longer" to "rate cuts are coming." All the important metrics and market developments suggest that the start of the rate-cutting cycle is imminent, said Frantisek Taborsky, EMEA FX & FI strategist at ING.

"We must keep in mind ⁠the heavy ​long positioning that the market has built ⁠up either as a high-carry view or as a pre-election view. It is this ratio that the market will test today and show what part can be attributed to the carry view." Across ⁠the region, a gauge tracking central and eastern European equities fell over 1%.

Elsewhere, Chinese stocks climbed about 1% after Beijing kept benchmark lending rates unchanged for a ninth straight month in February. In ​Nigeria, the naira traded at one-week lows against the euro ahead of the country's own rate decision on Tuesday, while Lagos stocks were on ⁠track for their best month since 2024.

Zooming out, global investors have been on a diversification path away from U.S. assets, unnerved by lofty tech valuations and the broader uncertainty around AI-driven disruption. That caution showed ⁠up ​overnight on Wall Street, where stocks closed sharply lower, spilling over across emerging markets on the day. Equities in Mumbai, Jakarta, Hong Kong and Prague were all down about 1% each.

Confusion about President Donald Trump's tariffs triggered investors to seek safety. Markets with strong links to gold have found extra support, with South Africa seeing ⁠a notable rally.

Johannesburg stocks were poised to notch a 14th straight month of gains, and the rand was heading for a fourth consecutive monthly advance. Attention ⁠turns to the national budget due this ⁠week. On the day, South African stocks slipped 0.3%, and the rand was flat. Fresh data showed the leading business cycle indicator fell 1% month-on-month in December.

Asian equity markets such as South Korea and Taiwan , which are seen as especially ‌sensitive to Nvidia's results, jumped ‌more than 2% each ahead of the AI bellwether's earnings, due Wednesday.