Ukraine Reconstruction Bill Hits $588bn, New Global Assessment Finds

Four years into Russia's full-scale invasion, the cost of rebuilding Ukraine has surged to nearly $588 billion (€500+ billion) over the next decade — almost three times the country's projected 2025 nominal GDP, according to a new joint Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5).

Released by the Government of Ukraine, World Bank Group, European Commission and United Nations, the updated assessment captures 46 months of destruction between February 2022 and 31 December 2025, offering the most comprehensive accounting yet of war-related damage and recovery needs.

Damage Soars to $195 Billion

Direct physical damage across Ukraine has now reached over $195 billion (€166 billion) — up from $176 billion in the February 2025 RDNA4 update.

The most heavily affected sectors include:

• Housing

• Transport

• Energy

As of the end of 2025:

• 14% of Ukraine's housing stock has been damaged or destroyed

• More than 3 million households have been impacted

In the energy sector, damaged or destroyed assets — including generation, transmission, and district heating systems — have risen by 21% since RDNA4, following intensified Russian strikes during the winter of 2025.

The transport sector has seen needs jump by 24%, driven by renewed attacks on rail infrastructure and ports.

Frontline oblasts and major metropolitan areas continue to bear the brunt of destruction.

Recovery Underway — But Gap Remains Vast

Despite mounting damage, Ukraine has already mobilized substantial recovery efforts.

According to RDNA5 data:

• At least $20 billion in urgent repairs and early recovery activities have been delivered since February 2022.

• For 2026 alone, the Government has prioritized over $15 billion in public investment and essential recovery programmes, including housing reconstruction, demining and multisector economic support.

Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko emphasized both the scale of the challenge and Ukraine's resilience.

"Four years into Russia's full-scale invasion, the total cost of Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery is now estimated at nearly $588 billion over the next decade," she said.

"Amid unprecedented Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and homes across Ukraine this winter, our people show resilience, our entrepreneurs keep working."

Sector-by-Sector Breakdown of Long-Term Needs

The largest reconstruction requirements are concentrated in:

• Transport: over $96 billion (€82 billion)

• Energy: nearly $91 billion (€77 billion)

• Housing: almost $90 billion (€77 billion)

• Commerce and Industry: over $63 billion (€54 billion)

• Agriculture: over $55 billion (€47 billion)

• Explosive hazard management and debris clearance: nearly $28 billion (€24 billion)

Although demining progress has helped contain losses, explosive hazard management remains one of the costliest and most urgent priorities.

Private Sector Key to Recovery

The assessment underscores the central role of Ukraine's private sector in rebuilding the economy.

Despite massive disruption, Ukrainian businesses have continued operating under wartime conditions. However, unlocking large-scale private investment will require:

• Strengthening governance and rule of law

• Expanding access to finance

• Improving competition

• Addressing labour shortages

• Aligning production with EU green and digital standards

Anna Bjerde, World Bank Managing Director of Operations, reaffirmed the institution's support.

"The World Bank Group stands firmly committed to supporting Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction and helping to advance the people of Ukraine with jobs, opportunities and hope in a resilient, modern, and competitive economy," she said.

EU Path Central to Rebuilding Strategy

The RDNA5 aligns closely with Ukraine's EU accession process and the Ukraine Facility, which anchors reform and investment efforts for the coming years.

EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos framed reconstruction as part of Ukraine's European future.

"Our response is clear: we will rebuild Ukraine as a strong, modern EU country," she said."Through bold reforms and the Ukraine Investment Framework, we will transform devastation into prosperity and advance Ukraine's path to the EU."

The assessment also complements reforms under IMF and World Bank-supported programmes and the Government's emerging long-term strategy, Ukraine Economy of the Future (UEF).

Human-Centred Recovery

Beyond infrastructure, the UN stresses that people will determine the pace and quality of recovery.

"Ukraine's most critical asset is its people," said Matthias Schmale, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Ukraine.

Refugee return, veteran reintegration and increased participation of women in the labour force will be as critical as capital flows and infrastructure rebuilding, the report notes.

Recovery planning also integrates the Government's pilot Comprehensive Restoration Programme, which promotes community-based, locally driven rebuilding efforts.

A Historic Reconstruction Challenge

At nearly $588 billion, Ukraine's reconstruction bill now ranks among the largest post-war recovery challenges in modern history.

While international partners have already mobilized billions in support, the scale of need underscores the requirement for sustained multilateral coordination, private sector engagement and long-term reform.

As Ukraine presses ahead with EU-aligned reforms and infrastructure rebuilding under continued wartime conditions, RDNA5 delivers a stark message: recovery is underway — but the road to full reconstruction will define the country's economic and political trajectory for decades to come.