India's Strategic Oil Import Rebalancing: Middle East Gaining Ground

India's oil import strategy is undergoing a significant shift, as Middle Eastern suppliers, particularly Saudi Arabia, gradually reclaim market share. This comes as Russian oil volumes, once essential to India's needs, are becoming less prominent due to geopolitical pressures and sanctions, according to recent shipping data and expert insights.

During early February, India's crude imports averaged 4.85 million barrels per day, reflecting an 8% drop from January. This decrease is primarily attributed to a reduction in Russian shipments, which began to wane following sanctions from the United States and the European Union. Russian imports are expected to stabilize at lower levels as commercial and political tensions persist.

Saudi Arabia plays a pivotal role in this rebalancing act, with imports reaching their highest since November 2019. As India endeavors to maintain essential volumes to support refinery operations, it continues to diversify its sources, including potential incremental purchases from Venezuela. However, logistical and production challenges mean Venezuelan crude can only serve as a supplementary source to mitigate potential cost impacts.