New WTO-IMF Index Reveals Surge in Global Trade Policy Activity Since 2019

In an era marked by pandemic disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and shifting economic priorities, the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have unveiled a pioneering tool aimed at providing policymakers with early and accurate insights into global trade dynamics. Known as the Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index, this innovative indicator reflects a marked rise in trade policy interventions from 2019–2020 onward, capturing both long-term structural shifts and short-term policy responses to global shocks.

Developed by a group of WTO and IMF economists — Centorrino, Diakantoni, Keck, Ruta, Sztajerowska, and Wei — the TPA index is based on a Dynamic Factor Model that synthesizes information from thousands of trade policy actions across countries and products. It draws principally on the WTO Trade Monitoring Database (TMDB) and the Global Trade Alert (GTA), offering a powerful lens through which global trade policy trends can be tracked in a timely and comprehensive manner.

A Clear Shift: From Policy Stability to Heightened Activity

The index reveals that trade policy activity was relatively flat for nearly a decade, before undergoing a sharp uptick around 2019–2020. This inflection point coincided with several pivotal global events:

• U.S.-China tariff war (2018–2019)

• Onset of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020)

• Russia's invasion of Ukraine (2022)

• Recent imposition of new tariffs and export controls (2024–2025)

These developments have reshaped the landscape of global trade, pushing countries to adopt both facilitating and restrictive trade measures to meet policy objectives ranging from public health and national security to climate action and industrial policy.

The TPA index's baseline period — January 2010 to December 2011 — serves as the zero point against which subsequent developments are measured. The black line in Figure 1 of the research reflects the evolution of the index, while the grey dashed line shows the local quadratic trend, offering a smoothed visualization of long-term changes.

Differentiating Between Trade Measures: A Closer Look at Figure 2

One of the most valuable features of the TPA index is its ability to disaggregate data and show divergent patterns across types of trade measures. Figure 2 in the research highlights a clear divergence between trade-facilitating measures and other (often restrictive) measures.

The divergence began around 2017, coinciding with the implementation of the WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement, which encouraged member countries to adopt measures aimed at simplifying customs procedures and reducing trade costs.

During crises such as COVID-19 and the Ukraine war, facilitating and restrictive measures both surged, reflecting countries' need to secure medical equipment, raw materials, and food supplies. These interventions included:

• Temporary elimination of import tariffs on essential goods

• Export restrictions on strategic commodities

• Licensing and quota systems

• Streamlined customs procedures for emergency imports

This dynamic underscores how governments increasingly view trade policy as a tool of strategic governance, rather than merely a means of economic liberalization.

A Tool for the Future: Enhancing Trade Transparency and Responsiveness

The TPA index is not just a backward-looking analytical instrument; it holds significant promise for forward-looking policy monitoring. By aggregating fragmented trade policy data from multiple sources and standardizing it into a single, normalized index, the TPA provides:

• Early warning signals of policy shifts

• A comprehensive view of global trade policy intensity

• Insights into cyclical and structural changes

• Differentiated analysis across country groups, sectors, and types of measures

To ensure timely availability, the research team is also exploring the use of high-frequency "big data" sources to enhance the "nowcasting" capabilities of the index. This would allow the TPA to be updated in near-real-time, significantly reducing the lag traditionally associated with policy data collection and reporting.

Initial tests of this nowcasting technique have already yielded promising results, with the index detecting a continued rise in trade policy activity through September 2025, even as some global economies begin to stabilize post-pandemic.

Implications for Policymakers and the Global Trading System

For governments, international organizations, businesses, and researchers, the TPA index represents a powerful new tool for trade policy intelligence. With trade increasingly being shaped by geopolitical, environmental, and security considerations, having access to a real-time, data-driven snapshot of trade policy activity can inform:

• Multilateral negotiations

• Domestic policy adjustments

• Investment decisions

• Supply chain planning

• Monitoring of trade tensions and cooperation trends

According to the research team, countries that have undergone significant trade policy changes are also seeing greater engagement in institutional reform, suggesting a feedback loop between trade policy activity and governance.

Furthermore, the TPA index can help bridge the information gap between fast-evolving trade realities and slow-moving policy analysis — a gap that has long hindered effective multilateral coordination.

Toward a Smarter Global Trade Architecture

As the multilateral trading system navigates a new era of fragmentation, realignment, and resilience-building, tools like the WTO-IMF TPA index will be instrumental in fostering greater transparency and dialogue.

By turning a complex, sprawling body of trade policy measures into a clear and accessible signal, the index offers a 21st-century solution to a 21st-century problem: how to make sense of — and respond to — the ever-expanding role of trade in today's global policy landscape.

With ongoing enhancements and deeper integration of real-time data, the TPA index is poised to become a cornerstone of trade policy monitoring, helping to guide decisions in a world where trade is no longer just about tariffs, but about everything from public health to geopolitics.